iMAGINATION

A New Beginning

It has been almost a year since I posted here.  I have been posting almost on a daily basis on my other blog at Health Train Express.

I've decided to use this blog for some innovations in my broadcasting my own opinions in the realm of heath, health reform and health politics.

The podcasts will be available here and also on iTunes as a subscription service.

Eventually the audiopodcasts will covert to videoblogcasts.

Health Train Express Transition

The gulf between the macrocosm of health policy planners and the microcosm of health care providers, ie physicians, grows wider day by day.

Evidence of this abounds as other participants in the health process compete for a seat at the table of transition teams for the new Obama administration.  

What does Tom Daschle really know about providing healthcare to that patient on the exam table?

His choice was as an arbiter for political disagreements and an attempt to create the coalition to pass some type of health care legislation.  One cannot even begin to predict the outcome....whether it will call for a universal payor plan or another throwing of the dice in regard to reimbursement plans, or another game of insuring the uninsured by shuffling the deck of poker cards.

Health care unfortunately has become a game of chance.

Will you have a job?  Will you become disabled?  Will you become uninsurable? Will you be able to find a family physician? Will you, will you , will you?

Medicine and Politics seem to be following a new course of increased transparency of their own process. The internet has led to this development but still lacks user friendly search engines and other health 2.0 applications to find, organize and interpret raw data and commentary.  If one visits the Obama Transition Web site,  and searches you will find numerous sources and opportunities to participate .

 

Senator Tom Daschle is now the designated head of Health and Human Services.

The issues are complex and the economy has now complicated it further.  A bailout and stimulus package is a false hope. The  real problems are systemic.  Throwing money at our failed health care system is almost as bad as giving it to the IRS.

del.icio.us Tags: daschle,hhs,bailout,failed health system,obama transition web site,family physician,disabled,unemplloyed

The Awakening of Detroit

When we say 'Detroit' we think of automobile manufacturers. In actuality the automobile industry has been shifting to other areas of the country. BMW, Toyota, Honda and others have shifted manufacturing to other states.  GM builds cars in South America,as well.

The  American automobile industry over the last 20 years has contributed less and less to the GDP.  This has ocurred for largely two reasons. 

1. The shift to technology, including the internet, development of online industry, software, outsourcing to foreign countries,

2. While Detroit has considered itself the core of United States productivity and the heartbeat of the nation, this in reality is no longer true. 

Demand for their product has gradually and now precipitously declined due to the economic credit crunch, and other more insidious reasons.

Looking in the mirror will do little to correct the immediate problem.

The history of companies reveals what will happend to General Motors. When companies begin to fail they look for increased efficiency, and more stable revenue sources.  The model is clear, those who successfully diversify survive with the ability to increase their business portfolio as the world changes.

General Motors has been asleep at the switch, isolated in Michigan with a feeling of invincibility.  This was demonstrated when their executives flew to D.C. in three separate private jets. The expense for that trip was in reality small compared to the enormous challenge they now face.

A mere bailout of 34 billion dollars is a bandaid at this point. Bandaids will not stop the hemorrhage from an artery.

The sequence of events will be:

1. Failure to make payrolls

2. Breach of contracts with their suppliers

3. Lawsuits, followed by liens, seizures,

4. Increased liabilities due to 1,2 and 3.

5..Forced involuntary bankruptcy, and take over by a court appointed trustee.

Some planning and initiative by filing for a Chapter 11 provides some protection for a period of reorganization with oversight by third parties.  The success rate for this move overall is questionable.  The rate of confirmation for companies filing Chapter 11 is outlined in this report

The success rate of Chapter 11 bankruptcy cases, as measured by the percentage of cases confirmed each year, has doubled since the early 1980s, according to a new study of data collected by the United States Trustee Program.
The study showed, on average, a 27 percent annual confirmation rate of Chapter 11 cases filed between 1989 and 1995. Previous statistics indicated that only around 17 percent of Chapter 11 cases were confirmed.
A Chapter 11 debtor, often with participation from creditors, creates a plan to repay part or all of its debts. A case is "confirmed" if the bankruptcy court approves that plan.
The report, published in the February 1998 issue of American Bankruptcy Institute Journal, was prepared by Ed Flynn and Gordon Bermant for the Executive Office for United States Trustees. The EOUST performs administrative and supervisory functions for the United States Trustee Program, a component of the Justice Department that monitors the administration of bankruptcy cases nationwide.

Filing chapter  11 does not mean the end of a business.

Alternatives are available.  When attorneys become involved if there is anything left they will get it.

Usually those involved are emotionally and physically drained by the events leading up to the business failure.

It is always wise to have outside professional advice, and not necessarily attorneys.  Most will advise Chapter 11 or 7 because of the conflict of interest.....they will profit while all others lose out.  They have their fees alloted at the inceptionof the filing by a trustee (who is usually a judge) ie, attorney. 

It has been done previously by a number of big industries,the railroads were broken up into smaller companies.  They survived in a different format, some with government subsidies.  One way or the other we all pay for it, if it is deemed essential to the national interest. The big question is "Is GM essential to our way of life?"

What will supercede it's necessary functions?

Automobiles built in the United States will have a new logo.

GM needs to cut it's payroll, make fewer cars, renegotiate contract with vendors, eliminate some or most of it's legacy costs.  Workers are going to have to bite the bullet in the face of all other employed losing health insurance, other perks and benefits. The idea of a job bank, is well intentioned, but in survival mode where there will be fewer if any jobs is very questionable.  Government may have to step in with unemployment and social service benefits for some time while industries reorganize to a modern business model.

Sidetrack

Thanks for stopping by. I will be publishing at this site for the next several weeks.  The reasons are clear to me.  I have only so much time to write about current events in  health care  and financial and global economic world events.   I've been doing some research on the history of post world war II global economics which I would like to share with all of you, especially Baby Boomers and beyond.  American and World history have taken a back seat in public schools

so that no child will be left behind. Reading, Riting, and  rythmitic  (the three Rs) that were essentials prior to no child left behind are the focus of annual examinations for elementary school and middle school as well as high school young people.  With the feds stepping in to mandate federal subsidies the states must produce increasing test score results, or else....Any teacher or administrator with a hair brain knows full well that their students had better improve their scores, which do not reflect true learning or the ability to comprehend  information.

Our federal government is now immersed in post election rhetoric, transition planning, minimizing terrorist threats,a global as well as United States financial crisis, and probably many things that are not on the radar.

We have heard a number of causes of the turmoil. Most sources tell us it was the subprime mortgage debacle which led to this crisis.  This is a visible scapegoat, but in the overall scheme of things this portion of the financial market is miniscule.  The rapidly falling dominoes

 

of the investment banks, which has still not completely evolved is more than a hint that there have been much more hidden fundamental weaknesses in our system. For some time we have run on empty fumes and the engine has finally coughed it's last, begging for an overhaul, not just a filling of the tank, which will be burned even faster by an engine that has leaky valves, worn out bearings, a leaky cooling system, and a nearly defunct transmission.  A healthy financial system would tolerate and absorb this blip, if one cylinder misfired now and then.

So all these experts are not really expert or we have been lied to by more than a few people, acting in their own self-interest.

The automobile industry in the U.S. has been dysfunctional for many years  It has had more than 25 years to re-tool and begin building more efficient and better engineered vehicles.  The Japanese and Germans have been at this for over 30 years. The U.S.. automakers have dragged their feet, waiting only until government regulations, timetables, and mandates become the law until they move forward.  This has been a fundamental disregard for the welfare of the buying public.  The very public that Detroit wants to 'bail them out'.

There are many jobs at stake...The UAW wishes to operate like it was 1950 with guarrantees that few Americans enjoy.  The automobile industry is bankrupt, buoyed by a recent bailout that is short lived.  Most of the public feel the giants should be dealt with accordingly with  the current financial mechanism of bankruptcy which work well for other industries allowing old business models to fail , evaporate and be replaced with new models.

Painful as this may seem in the long run  this will be a more viable means of insuring a healthy automobile industry for America.  We can no longer continue in our present mode.  Our current auto industry needs to be deconstructed and remodelled with new owners, management, and workers better led for the benefit of all of us.

Automobiles will always be in high demand in the United States and the global economy.  Our present system is non competitive even in the United States. 

Yes this will cause huge unemployment which must be dealt with to mitigate real pain, economic losses for auto workers.  But this  fundamental re-powering of our success engine will more effectively result in a solution that will be enduring.

 

del.icio.us Tags: automobile,bankruptcy,restructure,engine,unemployment,mitigate,reading,subprime

Bin Laden's Success

When does our government stop attempting to reduce our angst regarding the state of our country with lies, false truths, and self aggrandizement?

'Everything will be fine' goes the  standard message. We are just going through tough times.  "we cannot allow to let these 'institutions fail' or it will be disaster."

It is a disaster.  No verbal assurance will assuage the public, who awake each morning to hear of another bank failure, automobile industry implosion, and probably much more that  does not make the daily news cycle with a 'sound bite'.

We are on the prepuce of a possible financial revolution, that if not  fixed will threaten social order, because our country has sadly gradually slipped into  two systems.  The rich and the poor. The middle class as defined by a range of income, can no longer be defined by assets, wealth, or income.  The dollar as we knew it is becoming worthless.

The middle and lower classes have become dependent on social welfare systems....even those who earn good income depend  upon government for non necessary items, hidden in budgets, school loan programs, subsidies to colleges, and more programs, grants, loan guarrantee programs and more.

The federal bailout is fast approaching 1 trillion dollars. For those of you who did not take calculus that is a 1 with 12 zeroes after it. The choices the feds are making are

1.Having the public buy shares in failed institutions

2. Buying 'toxic' assets that are devalued by 50% to 90% or more.

We have had a long standing legal process called bankruptcy.  The mechanism is all there already. Why should we call this anything but a bankruptcy?  A federal bailout is not going to rekindle confidence in Detroit, Wall Street, or other financial markets.

I do not want to own Citigroup, Lehman Brothers, Goldman Sachs, WAMU, Wachovia, nor an incompetent Detroit auto manufacturer.

Also we must demand  transparency. In the days of the internet it is possible for all these 'numbers' to be public. Trust me has become a meaningless word.  Trust is earned by actions, not words.  Congress has been duped, for a long time.  Do you believe anything that Barney Frank and  Chris Dodd say??

In two months time our country has been brought to it's knees. I think it began back on September 11, 2001.  Bin Laden accomplished what he set out to do. Make no mistake about it.  They  don't have to mount another terrorist attack. One did it all.

Bin Laden and El-Qaeda calculated that Bush and our nation would have a knee jerk reaction of indignation and anger to search out and attempt to destroy the agent of devastation. In a highly charged and emotional moment our government failed to estimate what invading Iraq and Afghanistan would mean. They fully calculated our response and the cost to us of carrying out our plan for revenge and destruction.

 

 

Essentially they bankrupted America just as in the Reagan era we bankrupted the Soviet Union it their attempt   to keep up with the United States.

Would it have been better to  'lick our wounds' and tighten our borders and security to fight another day at a  time to our advantage?  For the price of the war(s) we could have built a line of 10 fences from California to Florida.

The United States, despite setbacks, remains a great republic, the strength of which lies in the people, our freedom and the ability to transform our challenges.

A Message for America

Are you ready??

 

1. Economy

2. Infrastructure

3. Energy

4  Healthcare

5. Iraq

6. Education